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Matchup Mulligan: Sneak & Show


Legacy, Strategy, TES, The EPIC Storm, Theory
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Before we get started with Sneak & Show, here's the answer from last month's Grixis Delver article:

Grixis Delver Final Hand Answer

Hand 10: (on the play)
Rite Of Flame Chrome Mox Lions Eye Diamond Infernal Tutor Empty The Warrens DarkRitual Gitaxian Probe
Keep

You have roughly a 64% chance of hitting what you need off of Gitaxian Probe. These cards are: 4 Duress, 4 Cabal Therapy, 4 Lotus Petal, 3 Dark Ritual, 2 Infernal Tutor, 2 Chrome Mox, 1 Ad Nauseam, and 12 Lands (Island isn't a hit). Because of there being three copies of Gitaxian Probe still in the deck, the math on this is 32/50 (64%). As I've mentioned in the past, I often compare playing Storm combo to sitting down at a table in the casino. If you're ever in a situation where you're a 64% favorite you take it.

Sneak & Show

Pre-board

Hand 1: (on the play)

Bloodstained Mire Duress Rite Of Flame BurningWish Lions Eye Diamond Cabal Therapy Ad Nauseam
Keep

This hand is a little misleading as you're a little light on mana. That said, if you draw Rite of Flame or Lion's Eye Diamond this hand opens the line of Burning Wish into Telemin Performance. If you only draw a single mana source, you're able to use Empty the Warrens in conjunction with Cabal Therapy. This hand plays out in three ways ways: They all start with Bloodstained Mire into Badlands and then Duress. After that we have... 1.) Draw Rite of Flame or Lion's Eye Diamond. 2.) Draw land and Empty the Warrens. 3.) Don't draw a mana source and Cabal Therapy.

 

Hand 2: (on the draw)
Infernal Tutor DarkRitual Rite Of Flame BurningWish Swamp Polluted Delta Polluted Delta
Mulligan

This hand is just too slow. On turn two you can either Burning Wish for Past in Flames or get a copy of a ritual effect then on the third turn, the other line. This sets up a turn four Past in Flames kill if our opponent doesn't kill us or have countermagic. This is wishful thinking.

 

Hand 3: (on the play)
DarkRitual Bloodstained Mire Rite Of Flame Underground Sea Gitaxian Probe Gitaxian Probe
Keep

You've already mulliganed once and your hand has some interaction with mana. I wouldn't expect an average five card hand to be any better.

 

Hand 4: (on the draw)
Rite Of Flame Rite Of Flame Island Infernal Tutor Lions Eye Diamond Gitaxian Probe Infernal Tutor
Mulligan

This should be very obvious, this hand just doesn't do anything. You would need to draw two different initial mana sources for your rituals and tutors while hoping your opponent doesn't have any interaction.

 

Hand 5: (on the play)
Empty The Warrens DarkRitual Rite Of Flame Swamp Chrome Mox Underground Sea Scalding Tarn
Mulligan

Six Goblins on the play isn't fast enough to stop Emrakul, the Aeons Torn or Griselbrand from taking over the game. Four turns is just too slow. The only way I see this line of play winning is if multiple disruption spells are drawn.

 

Post-board

Website recommendation for sideboarding

-1 Empty the Warrens, -1 Ponder +2 Chain of Vapor

 

Hand 6: (on the draw)

Lotus Petal Chrome Mox Chrome Mox Gitaxian Probe Ponder Brainstorm Rite Of Flame
Mulligan

This hand has all sorts of things wrong with it. No disruption, no tutor effects, and no consistent mana sources. An average six card hand would be much better.

 

Hand 7: (on the play)
Chain Of Vapor Volcanic Island Scalding Tarn Ponder Brainstorm DarkRitual
Keep

Leyline of Sanctity is very common in Sneak & Show sideboards, this hand has an answer to the annoying enchantment. It also has a way to fix your hand in case they don't have Leyline of Sanctity in their opening hand. I think this is a fine hand, it has ways to find what it needs and is more reliable than most five card hands. Keep it!

 

Hand 8: (on the draw)
Cabal Therapy DarkRitual DarkRitual Lotus Petal Bloodstained Mire Infernal Tutor Ad Nauseam
Keep

This hand is this article's "no-brainer". A turn one hypothetical kill with disruption back-up. The real decision is what to name with Cabal Therapy. I would likely name Force of Will as it's mathematically more probable than Spell Pierce or Flusterstorm (assuming they leave open mana).

 

Hand 9: (on the play)
Rite Of Flame Lotus Petal Chrome Mox Chain Of Vapor BurningWish Lions Eye Diamond Scalding Tarn
Keep

Once again, we have an answer for Leyline of Sanctity. Unfortunately, it won't be needed – you're going to jam. You're going all in on Telemin Performance as long as they don't have Leyline of Sanctity or if they do, cast Empty the Warrens. Twelve Goblins is a much more reasonable clock, especially on the play.

 

Hand 10: (on the draw)
Duress Cabal Therapy Gitaxian Probe Cabal Therapy Polluted Delta Badlands Infernal Tutor
Stay tuned for the next article!

I'll provide my answer in the next article, but for now, make sure to post your thoughts!