Data


Empty The Warrens
Stoneforge Mystic
Batterskull

 

Play/Draw Turn Number of Goblins required
On the Play 1 10
On the Play 2 14
On the Play 3 18
On the Draw 1 14
On the Draw 2 18

 

Figuring out the minimum number of Goblins necessary to beat an opponent's Stoneforge Mystic for Batterskull isn't exactly uncommon in Legacy or the EPIC Storm in general, the chart above will help determine the amount of Goblins required on a specific turn to overcome this scenario.

Ten Goblins on the play are enough. On turn one, you make ten Goblins and your opponent plays a land. You attack for ten (10 damage total) and your opponent plays land and plays Stoneforge Mystic. You attack with ten Goblins and one gets blocked (19 damage total). Your opponent does nothing. When you attack a third time, your opponent activates Stoneforge Mystic and makes a Germ. The Germ blocks a token, letting eight tokens through but gaining four life for a total of four damage (23 damage total).

Note: With just eight Goblins on the play, you deal eight damage, then seven, then two, leaving you with six Goblins and an opponent at three life. Because the Germ has vigilance, it attacks on their fourth turn, putting them to six and effectively out of reach.

On the draw, you need more Goblins. If you make fourteen Goblins on turn one, your opponent can play Stoneforge Mystic on their turn. You attack with fourteen Goblins and thirteen get through (13 damage total). On your next turn, you attack with thirteen Goblins, your opponent forges Batterskull and blocks, gaining four life but letting twelve Goblins through for eight damage (21 damage total).

Note: Twelve Goblins would not have accomplished this. Also, notice that if your opponent has a turn one creature that can block twice (such as a Delver of Secrets that flips on turn 1), they can survive even fourteen turn one Goblins!

If you are not making Goblins until turn two, the situation is worse. Turn two on the play is the same as turn one on the draw, so once again you need fourteen Goblins. If you are on the draw, you need eighteen Goblins.

Suppose your opponent has just cast Stoneforge Mystic on their second turn. On your turn, you make eighteen Goblins. When you attack on your third turn, they put Batterskull into play and block, letting seventeen Goblins through and gaining four life for thirteen damage (13 damage total). Because the Germ token has vigilance, it attacks, gaining them four life (9 damage total). You now attack with seventeen Goblins and both the Stoneforge Mystic and the Germ can block, so fifteen Goblins get through and deal eleven damage (20 damage total). Obviously this plan is fragile as removing a single Goblin is enough give the opponent an extra turn.

After the second turn, it's typically a good idea to avoid casting Empty the Warrens. Although, technically making 18 Goblins on turn three on the play beats just Stoneforge Mystic into Batterskull.

Categories - General TES ANT
Matches Played 863 327
Matches Won 554 202
Games Played 2,137 809
Game Win % 60% 58%
Game Win % (Play) 65% 68%
Game Win % (Draw) 64% 59%
Match Win % 64% 62%
Match Win % (Play) 64% 63%
Match Win % (Draw) 64% 58%
Mulligan % 21% 17%
Average Combo Turn (ACT) 2.61 3.00
Ad Nauseam % 38% 18%
Past In Flames % 10% 48%
Natural Storm % 46% 29%
Natural Storm % (ToA) 29% 61%
Natural Storm % (ETW) 67% 39%
Natural Storm % (Grapeshot) 4% 0%
Tendrils of Agony Kill % 57% 84%
Empty the Warrens Kill % 33% 12%
Grapeshot Kills % 4% 0%
Telemin Performance Kills % 3% 0%
Categories vs Blue Decks TES ANT
Game Win % 56% 56%
Game Win % (Play) 54% 55%
Game Win % (Draw) 59% 56%
Match Win % 58% 56%
Match Win % (Play) 54% 55%
Match Win % (Draw) 63% 56%
Mulligan % 14% 15%
Average Combo Turn (ACT) 2.89 3.15
Ad Nauseam % 28% 11%
Past In Flames % 11% 48%
Natural Storm % 58% 35%
Natural Storm % (ToA) 30% 59%
Natural Storm % (ETW) 67% 40%
Natural Storm % (Grapeshot) 3% 0%
Tendrils of Agony Kill % 30% 81%
Empty the Warrens Kill % 67% 15%
Grapeshot Kills % 3% 0%
Telemin Performance Kills % 2% 0%
Categories vs Non-Blue Decks TES ANT
Game Win % 65% 66%
Game Win % (Play) 69% 62%
Game Win % (Draw) 62% 69%
Match Win % 74% 71%
Match Win % (Play) 79% 63%
Match Win % (Draw) 68% 78%
Mulligan % 22% 16%
Average Combo Turn (ACT) 2.39 2.87
Ad Nauseam % 47% 25%
Past In Flames % 9% 52%
Natural Storm % 34% 19%
Natural Storm % (ToA) 30% 69%
Natural Storm % (ETW) 64% 31%
Natural Storm % (Grapeshot) 6% 0%
Tendrils of Agony Kill % 61% 89%
Empty the Warrens Kill % 24% 7%
Grapeshot Kills % 5% 0%
Telemin Performance Kills % 6% 0%
Categories vs Chalice Decks TES ANT
Game Win % 56% 50%
Game Win % (Play) 58% 51%
Game Win % (Draw) 54% 45%
Match Win % 58% 46%
Match Win % (Play) 61% 53%
Match Win % (Draw) 56% 25%
Mulligan % 21% 20%
Average Combo Turn (ACT) 2.24 2.74
Ad Nauseam % 40% 18%
Past In Flames % 6% 35%
Natural Storm % 51% 47%
Natural Storm % (ToA) 20% 50%
Natural Storm % (ETW) 78% 50%
Natural Storm % (Grapeshot) 2% 0%
Tendrils of Agony Kill % 51% 76%
Empty the Warrens Kill % 44% 24%
Grapeshot Kills % 3% 0%
Telemin Performance Kills % 0% 0%
Force of Will
Force of Negation
Daze

Finding these counterspells with the London Mulligan

These probabilities are calculated assuming that your opponent only cares if their hand contains one of the listed counterspells. The raw numbers assume that they found zero of those cards in previous hands and at least one in the indicated hand. The cumulative numbers are the sum of the raw numbers and represent the probability that your opponent finds at least one by the time they hit the corresponding hand size. The numbers for six-and-fewer-card hands are greater than the same numbers would have been under the Vancouver mulligan rules.

4 Force of Will
Cards in Hand Raw % Cumulative %
7 Cards 39.9% 39.9%
6 Cards 24.0% 63.9%
5 Cards 14.4% 78.3%
4 Cards 8.7% 87.0%
4 Force of Will & 2 Negation
Cards in Hand Raw % Cumulative %
7 Cards 54.1% 54.1%
6 Cards 24.8% 78.9%
5 Cards 11.4% 90.3%
4 Cards 5.2% 95.5%
4 Force of Will & 4 Daze
Cards in Hand Raw % Cumulative %
7 Cards 65.4% 65.4%
6 Cards 22.6% 88.0%
5 Cards 7.8% 95.8%
4 Cards 2.7% 98.5%
Burning Wish
Echo of Eons
Underground Sea

The math behind the engine

Situation
Mana Floating/Win Percentage
  • None: 18%
  • : 38%
  • : 42%
  • : 42%
  • : 54%
  • : 66%
  • : 66%
  • : 54%
  • : 66%
  • : 60%
  • (//): 48%
  • (//) (//): 70%
  • (//): 66%
  • (//): 70%
  • (//): 70%