Data


When trying to figure out the correct number of Goblins to defeat Stoneforge Mystic in to Batterskull or the probability that your opponent has a Force of WIll in their opening hand, it's easier to memorize this content than do the math on the spot!

TES Infernal Tutoring

11-29-2018 TES Infernal Tutoring #23 by Josh Hughes on theepicstorm.com

10-28-2018 TES Infernal Tutoring #22 by Alex McKinley on theepicstorm.com

09-26-2018 TES Infernal Tutoring #21 by Josh Hughes on theepicstorm.com

08-27-2018 TES Infernal Tutoring #20 by Alex McKinley on theepicstorm.com

07-30-2018 TES Infernal Tutoring #19 by Josh Hughes on theepicstorm.com

06-29-2018 TES Infernal Tutoring #18 by Anthony LaVerde on theepicstorm.com

05-30-2018 TES Infernal Tutoring #17 by Anthony LaVerde on theepicstorm.com

04-30-2018 TES Infernal Tutoring #16 by Anthony LaVerde on theepicstorm.com

03-29-2018 TES Infernal Tutoring #15 by Anthony LaVerde on theepicstorm.com

02-23-2018 TES Infernal Tutoring #14 by Anthony LaVerde on theepicstorm.com

12-28-2018 TES Infernal Tutoring #13 by Anthony LaVerde on theepicstorm.com

10-16-2017 TES Infernal Tutoring #12 by Cyrus Corman-Gill on theepicstorm.com

09-07-2017 TES Infernal Tutoring #11 by Cyrus Corman-Gill on theepicstorm.com

07-23-2017 TES Infernal Tutoring #10 by Cyrus Corman-Gill on theepicstorm.com

01-31-2017 TES Infernal Tutoring #9 by Alexandre Richard on theepicstorm.com

12-01-2016 TES Infernal Tutoring #8 by Alexandre Richard on theepicstorm.com

07-28-2016 TES Infernal Tutoring #7 by Alexandre Richard on theepicstorm.com

06-23-2016 TES Infernal Tutoring #6 by Alexandre Richard on theepicstorm.com

06-02-2016 TES Infernal Tutoring #5 by Alexandre Richard on theepicstorm.com

05-19-2016 TES Infernal Tutoring #4 by Alexandre Richard on theepicstorm.com

05-05-2016 TES Infernal Tutoring #3 by Alexandre Richard on theepicstorm.com

04-14-2016 TES Infernal Tutoring #2 by Alexandre Richard on theepicstorm.com

03-31-2016 TES Infernal Tutoring #1 by Alexandre Richard on theepicstorm.com


TES Matchup Battles

12-24-2018 TES Matchup Battles: Landstill by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

11-14-2018 TES Matchup Battles: Grixis Control by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

10-08-2018 TES Matchup Battles: Goblins by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

09-20-2018 TES Matchup Battles: Esper Stoneblade by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

08-23-2018 TES Matchup Battles: 4c Loam by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

07-18-2018 TES Matchup Battles: RUG Delver by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

06-29-2018 TES Matchup Battles: Death's Shadow by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

05-24-2018 TES Matchup Battles: Maverick by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

04-23-2018 TES Matchup Battles: Elves by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

03-19-2018 TES Matchup Battles: Eldrazi by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

02-27-2018 TES Matchup Battles: Turbo Depths by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

01-15-2018 TES Matchup Battles: Aluren by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

12-29-2017 TES Matchup Battles: Dredge by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

11-20-2017 TES Matchup Battles: Dragon Stompy by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

09-27-2017 TES Matchup Battles: Lands by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

08-09-2017 TES Matchup Battles: Burn by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

07-03-2017 TES Matchup Battles: UR Delver by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

04-20-2017 TES Matchup Battles: 4c Control by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

03-14-2017 TES Matchup Battles: Sneak & Show by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

02-02-2017 TES Matchup Battles: Leovold Sultai by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

01-17-2017 TES Matchup Battles: Grixis Delver by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com

12-19-2016 TES Matchup Battles: Death & Taxes by Alex Poling on theepicstorm.com


Matchup Mulligan

12-13-2018 Matchup Mulligan: 4c Loam by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

11-06-2018 Matchup Mulligan: Dredge by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

10-10-2018 Matchup Mulligan: Grixis Control by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

09-14-2018 Matchup Mulligan: Death's Shadow by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

08-06-2018 Matchup Mulligan: Burn by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

07-25-2018 Matchup Mulligan: RUG by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

06-03-2018 Matchup Mulligan: BR Reanimator by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

05-03-2018 Matchup Mulligan: Dragon Stompy by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

04-03-2018 Matchup Mulligan: Elves by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

03-16-2018 Matchup Mulligan: Eldrazi by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

02-07-2018 Matchup Mulligan: 4c Pile by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

01-17-2018 Matchup Mulligan: Miracles by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

12-13-2017 Matchup Mulligan: Lands by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

11-13-2017 Matchup Mulligan: Sneak & Show by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

10-05-2017 Matchup Mulligan: Grixis Delver by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

09-17-2017 Matchup Mulligan: Storm by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

08-22-2017 Matchup Mulligan: Death & Taxes by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com


Through the Looking Glass

11-15-2018 Through the Looking Glass: BR Reanimator with Eric Landon by Anthony LaVerde on theepicstorm.com

10-16-2018 Through the Looking Glass: Grixis Control with Brian Braun-Duin by Anthony LaVerde on theepicstorm.com

09-17-2018 Through the Looking Glass: Death's Shadow with Ben Friedman by Anthony LaVerde on theepicstorm.com

08-14-2018 Through the Looking Glass: RUG Delver with Eric Vergo by Anthony LaVerde on theepicstorm.com

07-20-2018 Through the Looking Glass: Dragon Stompy with Zac Turgeon by Anthony LaVerde on theepicstorm.com

05-16-2018 Through the Looking Glass: Grixis Delver with Jonathan Sukenik by AJ Kerrigan on theepicstorm.com

03-22-2018 Through the Looking Glass: Lands with Jarvis by AJ Kerrigan on theepicstorm.com

02-19-2018 Through the Looking Glass: Miracles with Anuraag Das and Sam Roukas by AJ Kerrigan on theepicstorm.com

01-09-2018 Through the Looking Glass: Show & Tell with JPA93 by Jasper Gardener Burch on theepicstorm.com

10-17-2017 Through the Looking Glass: Elves with Julian Knab by Jasper Gardener Burch on theepicstorm.com


Reading the Ropes

10-03-2018 Reading the Ropes - Getting More Mileage from Tutors by AJ Kerrigan on theepicstorm.com

07-27-2018 Reading the Ropes - Using Discard Spells by AJ Kerrigan on theepicstorm.com

06-29-2018 Reading the Ropes - Using Draw Spells by AJ Kerrigan on theepicstorm.com

04-27-2018 Reading the Ropes - Mulliganing by AJ Kerrigan on theepicstorm.com

03-12-2018 Reading the Ropes - Winning the Game by AJ Kerrigan on theepicstorm.com

01-19-2018 Reading the Ropes - The Win Conditions by AJ Kerrigan on theepicstorm.com

12-19-2017 Reading the Ropes - Introduction by AJ Kerrigan on theepicstorm.com


TES Mailbox

03-26-2018 TES Mailbox #12 by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

11-17-2017 TES Mailbox #11 by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

06-06-2017 TES Mailbox #10 by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

06-24-2016 TES Mailbox #9 by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

04-06-2016 TES Mailbox #8 by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

02-24-2016 TES Mailbox #7 by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

01-10-2016 TES Mailbox #6 by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

11-02-2015 TES Mailbox #5 by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

09-14-2015 TES Mailbox #4 by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

09-01-2015 TES Mailbox #3 by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

08-18-2015 TES Mailbox #2 by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

07-30-2015 TES Mailbox #1 by Bryant Cook on theepicstorm.com

Empty The Warrens
Stoneforge Mystic
Batterskull

 

Play/Draw Turn Number of Goblins required
On the Play 1 10
On the Play 2 14
On the Play 3 18
On the Draw 1 14
On the Draw 2 18

 

Figuring out the minimum number of goblins necessary to beat an opponent's Stoneforge Mystic for Batterskull isn't exactly uncommon in Legacy or the EPIC Storm in general, the chart above will help determine the amount of goblins required on a specific turn to overcome this scenario.

Ten goblins on the play are enough. On turn one, you make ten goblins and your opponent plays a land. You attack for ten (10 damage total) and your opponent plays land and plays Stoneforge Mystic. You attack with ten goblins and one gets blocked (19 damage total). Your opponent does nothing. When you attack a third time, your opponent activates Stoneforge Mystic and makes a Germ. The Germ blocks a token, letting eight tokens through but gaining four life for a total of four damage (23 damage total).

Note: With just eight goblins on the play, you deal eight damage, then seven, then two, leaving you with six goblins and an opponent at three life. Because the Germ has vigilance, it attacks on their fourth turn, putting them to six and effectively out of reach.

On the draw, you need more goblins. If you make fourteen goblins on turn one, your opponent can play Stoneforge Mystic on their turn. You attack with fourteen goblins and thirteen get through (13 damage total). On your next turn, you attack with thirteen goblins, your opponent forges Batterskull and blocks, gaining four life but letting twelve goblins through for eight damage (21 damage total).

Note: Twelve goblins would not have accomplished this. Also, notice that if your opponent has a turn one creature that can block twice (such as a Deathrite Shaman or a Delver of Secrets that flips on turn 1), they can survive even fourteen turn one goblins!

If you are not making goblins until turn two, the situation is worse. Turn two on the play is the same as turn one on the draw, so once again you need fourteen goblins. If you are on the draw, you need eighteen goblins.

Suppose your opponent has just cast Stoneforge Mystic on their second turn. On your turn, you make eighteen goblins. When you attack on your third turn, they put Batterskull into play and block, letting seventeen goblins through and gaining four life for thirteen damage (13 damage total). Because the Germ token has vigilance, it attacks, gaining them four life (9 damage total). You now attack with seventeen goblins and both the Stoneforge Mystic and the Germ can block, so fifteen goblins get through and deal eleven damage (20 damage total). Obviously this plan is fragile as removing a single goblin is enough give the opponent an extra turn.

After the second turn, it's typically a good idea to avoid casting Empty the Warrens. Although, technically making 18 goblins on turn three on the play beats just Stoneforge Mystic into Batterskull.

Force Of Will

 

4 Force of Will in deck (Odds of opponent having at least 1)

  • 39.9% 1 Force of Will drawn, 4 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 35.1% 1 Force of Will drawn, 4 in deck, 6 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 30.1% 1 Force of Will drawn, 4 in deck, 5 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 24.7% 1 Force of Will drawn, 4 in deck, 4 card hand, 60 card deck.

Cumulative odds if opponent mulligans to find a Force of Will

  • 39.9% 1 Force of Will drawn, 4 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 61.1% 1 Force of Will drawn, 4 in deck, 6 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 72.8% 1 Force of Will drawn, 4 in deck, 5 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 79.5% 1 Force of Will drawn, 4 in deck, 4 card hand, 60 card deck.

Chance of a blue card to accompany Force of Will

Number of Cards in Hand 20 Blue Cards 16 Blue Cards
7 card hand 91.5% 84.3%
6 card hand 86.9% 78.3%
5 card hand 79.9% 70.2%
4 card hand 69.6% 59.3%

 

4 Force of Will & 4 Daze in Deck (Odds of opponent having at least 1)

  • 65.4% 1 Force of Will and/or Daze drawn, 8 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 59.3% 1 Force of Will and/or Daze drawn, 8 in deck, 6 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 52.4% 1 Force of Will and/or Daze drawn, 8 in deck, 5 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 44.5% 1 Force of Will and/or Daze drawn, 8 in deck, 4 card hand, 60 card deck.

Cumulative odds if opponent mulligans to find a Force of Will or Daze

  • 65.4% 1 Force of Will and/or Daze drawn, 8 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 85.9% 1 Force of Will and/or Daze drawn, 8 in deck, 6 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 93.2% 1 Force of Will and/or Daze drawn, 8 in deck, 5 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 96.3% 1 Force of Will and/or Daze drawn, 8 in deck, 4 card hand, 60 card deck.

 

Infernal Tutor

 

4 Infernal Tutor in deck

  • 33.6280% 1 Infernal Tutor drawn, 4 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 5.9344% 2 Infernal Tutor drawn, 4 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 0.3804% 3 Infernal Tutor drawn, 4 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 0.0072% 4 Infernal Tutor drawn, 4 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • = 39.95% chance of drawing total

3 Infernal Tutor in deck

  • 28.1882% 1 Infernal Tutor drawn, 4 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 3.2525% 2 Infernal Tutor drawn, 4 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • 0.1023% 3 Infernal Tutor drawn, 4 in deck, 7 card hand, 60 card deck.
  • = 31.5430% chance of drawing
Diminishing Returns

 

Situation

Mana Floating/Win Percentage

  • None: 18%
  • U: 38%
  • R: 42%
  • B: 42%
  • UU: 54%
  • UR: 66%
  • UB: 66%
  • RR: 54%
  • RB: 66%
  • BB: 60%
  • (U/B/R): 48%
  • (U/B/R) (U/B/R): 70%
  • U (U/B/R): 66%
  • R (U/B/R): 70%
  • B (U/B/R): 70%