Analysis


Matchup Mulligan: Painter

Final 4C "Snow" Control Hand Answer Hand No. 10: (on the draw) » Keep or Mulligan? Keep I guess I'm a risk taker, I would gamble on not being hit by Thoughtseize and drawing a black source off the top of our library — which is about 43 percent (23 outs in 53 cards). The risk is worth the reward to me here as protected turn one win Read More »

Matchup Mulligan: 4C "Snow" Control

Final London Mulligan Hand Answer Hand 10: (on the play) » Keep or Mulligan? Mulligan I created this hand with the intent of showing a hand I likely would've kept under the "Vancouver Mulligan", but would send back under the "London Mulligan." There's a few key decisions here, do you Brainstorm or Ponder? With Ponder, you're looking for exactly Lotus Petal and have an additional look off of the Read More »

Matchup Mulligan: London Mulligan

Miracles II Final Hand Answer Hand 10: (on the play) » Keep or Mulligan? Mulligan With either mulligan rule (Vancouver or London), I'd mulligan this. It just doesn't do anything despite having one of your best cards for the match-up in Hope of Ghirapur. Hope of Ghirapur essentially negates Spell Pierce, Flusterstorm, and Force of Negation but that's not the problem with this hand. Without a blue source we're Read More »

Matchup Mulligan: Miracles II

Maverick Hand Answer Hand 10: (on the draw) » Keep or Mulligan? Keep I am honestly shocked by the number of people who said they would ship this hand. Risk vs. reward! You have a 38% chance to draw a black source in order to win the game on the spot. This hand also doesn't really lose to a Thoughtseize (they could slow you down by taking Dark Ritual, Read More »

The STORM Count: Ad Nauseam and Expected Value

Welcome to The STORM Count, our new article series analyzing the mathematics of our favorite Storm deck. While I will be including some of the theoretical concepts behind the math that we use, the goal is that the information presented in this article is accessible for as many of our readers as possible. Today, we are going to look at the exact numbers behind one of the biggest strengths of The Read More »

Matchup Mulligan: Maverick

UW Stoneblade Final Hand Answer Hand 10: (on the play) » Keep or Mulligan? Keep I was a little shocked at how many of you would mulligan this hand, you're only an initial mana source away from winning while being protected by our best disruption spell. I would lead off on Chrome Mox (Imprint: Burning Wish) and then cast Hope of Ghirapur. From here we have 12 lands that Read More »

Matchup Mulligan: UW Stoneblade

UR Delver Hand Answer Hand 10: (on the draw) » Keep or Mulligan? Keep Most people correctly answered this scenario. With a scry and being on the draw, your odds of finding a red source are much better than your odds of winning the game on five cards. It's difficult to ask for more than a first turn discard spell into ten Goblins in most match-ups. You can't be afraid Read More »

Matchup Mulligan: UR Delver

Grixis Phoenix Hand Answer Hand 10: (on the play) » Keep or Mulligan? Mulligan If you were smart enough to ignore my sideboarding advice and decided to keep in Empty the Warrens, I think this is a soft keep. The issue is that the Arclight Phoenix decks have anywhere between three and five answers to Goblin tokens, that said, you're in a position where they can't race you even Read More »

Matchup Mulligan: Grixis Phoenix

Turbo Depths Hand Answer Hand 10: (on the draw) » Keep or Mulligan? Mulligan Yes, we're on the draw and have roughly 17 live draws (9 that flat out win the game), which is about 33% to win the game for every draw step. The big issue here is that we're on the draw and that discard spells shut off our hand. Post-board Turbo Depths decks have four copies of Thoughtseize, Duress, and possibly Inquisition Read More »

Matchup Mulligan: Turbo Depths

4c Loam Final Hand Answer Hand 10: (on the draw) » Keep or Mulligan? Keep I'm a little shocked by the number of people that thought this hand was a mulligan. Burning Wish represents both an answer to Chalice of the Void (assuming you draw another Mountain or fetchland) as well as an answer to Thalia, Guardian of Thraben. On top of that you're only a Dark Ritual away from being able to cast Ad Read More »